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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It often functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround is handed the prize. However, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest upset.

But the current race is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions fading and longtime strugglers rising collectively. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this wild and thrilling year, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still