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Growing apprehensions have emerged about the possibility of military engagement involving Horn of Africa neighbours, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as aggressive language has intensified in the last month.

What Has Ethiopia Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for access to the maritime outlet through Eritrea has triggered a heated war of words.

PM Abiy Ahmed previously announced in 2023 that his nation's maritime access was an existential matter, statements that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Ties between the two countries have regularly been difficult. Following a long-standing struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a extensive Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, rendering it without sea access.

Subsequently, a territorial conflict broke out in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Current Statements from Ethiopia's Government

Abiy and army chief General Birhanu Jula have openly claimed sovereignty of Eritrean coastal city of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the frontier - and hinted at the intention to seize it militarily.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "mistake" of losing entry to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "addressed soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be given back "through military action".

Eritrea's Response to the Threats

In the face of persistent warnings from Ethiopia, Asmara's position has been confined to short statements on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea calling it "hazardous" and a "toxic agenda" of "irredentism" – a approach of claiming back previous domains.

Eritrean authorities cautioned on recently that attempts to validate "flagrant aggression" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Preparations on the Ground

So far, there are no reports of large-scale army activities in the frontier regions between the neighboring states.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, state television has displayed completion events of numerous trainees at various military training camps.

The director of staff section of the armed forces, General Hachalu, stated recently in an interview that the military was in a "secure situation" as "tens of thousands of youths" were entering service, which he said was "a signal to our adversaries".

Previous Background of the Conflict

For decades from the late 19th century, Eritrea was governed by colonial powers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then managed by the British administration before turning into a federated part of Ethiopia.

Yet in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor terminated this agreement and the region became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year civil war followed, ending with military reversal in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then confirmed by the population in a vote in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were good relations between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they clashed over the precise positioning of their mutual frontier, causing war in 1998.

Though this concluded in a truce in 2000, it was partially applied, and the neighbors stayed at loggerheads.

This ended in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The both leaders signed a announcement that the conflict was over – a action that earned the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The neighboring states were then allies in Ethiopia's recent armed struggle in the northern region.

However diplomatic connections have later worsened anew.